New statistics from Cancer Research UK

If you didn’t catch it listen to Radio 4s Woman’s Hour - a very balanced reaction to the ‘latest reasearch’.

I don’t feel any guilt about my BC. I do feel that I am better informed now and have made lifestyle changes that will hopefully give me a better prognosis but will generally be beneficial for my health.

What I mean about blame culture is that it is too easy to be dismissive of people who have not ‘done the right thing’ with regard to lifestyle or even to blame them for getting cancer or whatever. With such high levels of things like obesity in school children, those sorts of messages seem to be counterproductive.
Gretchen, as you say, there is something when a bag of crisps is cheaper than a piece of fruit.

Nobody should feel guilty about getting BC. Life’s a b**** sometimes and you just have to dael with what it throws at you.

Will listen to Woman’s Hour.

Gretchen - I know the difference between risk and cause - however this differentiation is not made either by the cancer charities in their PR. And never by health journalists whose basic understanding of the difference between absolute and relative risk is non existent.

Statistically alcohol seems to impact on risk of a BC diagnosis - but only by 1 extra woman per 100.
The discovery of this is hardly a “penicillin” moment is it? And as risk factors go it is pretty modest.

It must be understood that no cancer genius has peered down a microscope and seen that A + B = breast cancer. All of these claims are supposition and hypotheses based upon interpretation of statistics.

The number of seemingly related risk factors is enormous - so why the endless glib focus on weight and diet?
Why are we never given the broader, more nuanced picture of this disease?
The drip drip of information does not include all of the wider risk factors - preganancy for example (yes pregnancy is a risk factor at ANY age and risk is elevated for 3 years post partum - how many people know about that one?)

I think these half truths are deeply damaging - a little information is always a dangerous thing.
People who perceive themselves to be low risk (or are perceived by the establishment as low risk) do not check themselves or are misdiagnosed.
Also a general sense of blame emerges in the wider population - as it has done with regard to lung cancer. A vast majority of lung cancers have nothing to do with smoking.

I know why I have this cancer. I have a lot of cancers in my family and I have a chromosomal abnormality. I have no doubt that in a few years they will be announcing that genetic abnormalities are at the root of all cancers.
They have just found a genetic link for Alzheimers - something they ALWAYS swore was a solely environmentally-caused disease.
Medical science gets it wrong - a lot.

I have no problem at all with encouraging people to be healthy and fit but this relentless subtle implication that it will stop them getting cancer is pernicious nonsense.

Incidentally - the greatest increase in breast cancer diagnoses are in the 50 & 60s age group - the babyboomers. These women were the first to take the Pill for prolonged periods of time back when the Pill was an oestrogen/oestradiol time bomb - things like Ovranette that is now universally banned.
Just saying.

I was so hacked off reading and watching the news this morning ive sent a letter of complaint to cancer research telling them to think about people who have the disease feel reading what i consider rubbish. I have been a mountain bike racer, fit all my life, im not a drinker and i eat healthily. Shame on them. Shame…

Just watched the report again on BBC news channel. I know I have a different perspective now that I have bc, but my overall impression from that particular report was that they really don’t have a clue. All they know is that in general people appear to be more over weight, drinking more and leading less active lives- that is men and women. Running parallel with that is the fact that breast cancer rates are rising. They really do not know if that is the cause, but are hoping if people change their life style it will improve. Of course leading a healthy life will help prevent all sorts of diseases and should be promoted. But I could not see direct evidence from those reports. I am not trying to be sarcastic but a level pass rates go up every year is that because kids are less active, eat crap and watch too much tv?( rambling now sorry)

What was very odd was one spokesperson said we are not advocating women making decisions about having babies early in response to bc risks, yet don’t drink more than 14 units of alcohol a week. Well I didn’t drink more than that, but I did have my babies late- my only risk factor out of all the recognized list. Sorry it is just so confusing. Some risk factors they want us to change others not- if we are having a nightmare, should we have hrt, should we go on the pill?

Aaarrrggghhh!

Sorry if I have really irritated anybody. Am just feeling a bit crap about it all. Please feel free to ignore me.

Debx

Hardly managed to say anything at all, but did get in a criticism of their news reporting that said “lifestyle factors … are partly to blame” and that I know plenty of people who are mega fit and healthy who have it, and centenarians who have drunk, smoked and lived outrageously for most of their century.

Will have to have a listen again later to see what I ACTUALLY said, but could have said more.

Must admit most of the people I know who have had BC have been slim, fit, young, have breastfed, don’t drink a lot…

… and even if you’re overweight, don’t eat healthily, drink more than the recommended amount, haven’t had babies or breastfed them IT’S NOT YOUR FAULT THAT YOU HAVE CANCER!!!

I REFUSE to be blamed for this disease!

I know there’s a statistician or two on here, would you please be able to give a nice, neat potted summary of what “RISK” means, because there are too many people who simply don’t understand. I did A-level Maths and never did get my head round stats - like they say, there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

Ah, found it, the BCC publication that talks about risk:
breastcancercare.org.uk/upload/pdf/bcc_risk_final_0.pdf

I was really angry as well because I only heard the headlines! BC one in eight women, caused by obesity and drinking!
Well, I had my children in my early twenties and have never been able to drink very much- despite having tried on the odd occasion!
Do they realise the numbers of different types of BC?
These things put a label on people which can affect insurance, jobs etc.

Personally I am quite happy that it is obesity that is being blamed rather then blaming being on the pill early, smoking early and being a crazy-party girl through your 20’s as a major cause of bc, because then everyone would know that was me!!! lol

Risk is quite easy. Being a passenger in a car dramatically increased your risk of being in a passenger in a car accident, but it does not cause a car accident.

Being an obese alcoholic dramatically increases your risk of getting bc, but it does not cause bc.

My 9 year old son heard this report on the BBC this morning and told me that we should go jogging together on Saturdays. He then heard the stat that 2 thirds of women live for 20 years after getting cancer and than started working out how old he would be in 20 years time when I “die”. He automatically heard it as “it is caused by.”
I had to spend sometime reassuring him that we do eat a healthy diet. (I have made changes to my diet since BC to ensure this), that I cycle to work everyday now and that I know why I got BC (BRCA 2) and it wasn’t because I ate chocolate and didn’t exercise enough.

I agree with another poster that this could be said about almost any disease (heart disease, strokes, diabetes) all on the increase because of unhealthy lifestyles. I do think though we should all be encouraged to eat healthy food, drink less and exercise more and it is all about how we can do this that doesn’t add another stress to our lives.

Gretchen - I love that and will use it whenever anyone asks me about the reports:

Being a passenger in a car dramatically increased your risk of being in a passenger in a car accident, but it does not cause a car accident.

Fab.

I take some of these reports with a pinch of salt. I don’t have any guilt about the fact I got BC and I don’t beat myself up over it. It’s simply one more thing I have to deal with in life.

Okay, I need to lose some weight, but I eat sensibly, cook mostly from fresh and grow my own veg. I also go to the gym twice a week (3 times as of next week) and get up an hour earlier on the days I do this to fit it in before work. Between days I do other activities and in the better months I walk for miles at a time. I have a few small glasses of wine every week, but within the guidelines. Other than that I just lead a happy and fulfilled life with a good balance of work and free time; I also refuse to get too stressed out as I’ve been there, done it and got the t-shirt in the 20 years I worked in London. I really don’t see what else I can do and at the moment I feel fit and healthy, so have a lot to be thankful for.

msmolly I’m not sure where you are getting your statistics from, but I’m surprised to see you say that smoking does not cause most lung cancers - the standards statistic for lung cancer is that smoking is responsible for over 90% of lung cancers and in the UK 86% of deaths from lung cancer - not to mention all the other cancers which it is a known cause for, particularly colon/rectal and mouth and throat cancers. Even so, the risk of lung cancer for a life long smoker is still only slightly higher than getting bc at around 17% compared to 12% for bc.

As for the risks of alcohol - there is indeed a misunderstanding of relative risk. The figure that seems to be accepted by the cancer research community is that one unit of alcohol per day is associated with an increased risk, not an absolute risk, of between 8 and 12% depending on hormone status, and type of cancer (hormone positive lobular being at greatest risk). So as a rough calculation if we take the average as 10% per unit per day, and add that to the baseline risk of 1 in 8 (ie 12%)the risks increase as follows:

No alcohol 12% (1 in 8)

1 drink per day 13.2%

2 drinks per day 14.5%

3 drinks per day 16%

4 drinks per day 17.6%

5 drinks per day 19.4%

6 drinks per day 21.3% (1 in 5)

This can’t be completely accurate, because the baseline figure of 12% will already have included an alcohol risk - but I think for the purposes of illustration it is reasonable.

So although the figures are still relatively small, drinking half a bottle of wine a day would account for 4 extra cases of bc per 100. Drinking a whole bottle per day, which I would consider an awful lot but I know several people that do, increases risk from 1 in 8 to 1 in 5 - or by just under 10 extra people per 100.

On the general subject of risk, I think the people trying to raise awareness are in a very difficult situation, and are not responsible for the lazy way it is reported in the media. And raising awareness of risk is not necessarily apportioning blame - I wish I had been more aware that I had several risk factors - some I could do something about and some I couldn’t. But I had woefully underestimated my risk - I had assumed it was somewhere in the region of 1 in 50, whereas in reality on paper it was way higher, and in actuality it was 1 in 1! But I don’t consider myself to blame, but I wish I had had more information, and I do think it could have made a difference.

finty

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Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant as usual Finty!

CMuffin, I heard you on the radio and thought you spoke very well. You sound like a really fighter and I’m sure you will be fine through your treatment.

Well done Finty, I think there is a great lack of understanding about statistics and what they actually mean.

CM - can you give us details of radio station, name and time of programme etc, so we can ‘listen again’. thanks. Stella

Xwelcomex (and all the other women who are slim, healthy don’t drink much , yoga, babies young etc etc) you are a complete anomaly, you bc is currently unexplainable, it does not mean that obesity and alcohol consumption are not risk factors in bc! Nor does it mean that any stats indicating this should be ignored by the media.

In all set of stats there are outsiders, results that are off the scale and come from nowhere, but stats looks at the overall, gather all the information and look at patterns. The research indicates a strong pattern of obesity and alcohol as a risk factor in bc.

I appears that none of the posters on this thread fall into this category, but remembering that an internet forum is not a randomised sample, but skewed towards younger women (because it is the internet), to whom obesity appears not to be a risk factor. I’m sorry, but looking at some of the avators and reading posts about women with 40ggg breasts there are still plenty of women who are obese or at least dangerously overweight. They are far less likely to contribute to a discussion like this one.

What really bothers me about these new stats is that it is now 1 in 8 women who will get bc instead of 1 in 9. I don’t have children but have 5 nieces and 3 step-daughters, so the stats would suggest one of them will get bc. It’s bad enough I have it; I don’t want bc for them, or indeeed for anybody else.

The thought that I have a 1 in 4 chance of not surviving to the age of 52 (10 yrs from dx) is also depressing.

I think there must be more factors than weight / alcohol - for example do we really know whether the plastic containers that we use to microwave veg in are safe? (no evidence on this but use of microwaves has risen just as much as alcohol consumption and obesity).