Mind stuck on statistics

I’m just coming to the end of my chemo following triple +ive BC diagnosis last July. I had a mastectomy and am also having herceptin for a year. Hormone therapy also planned. Radiotherapy initially planned but too risky with another condition I have.

I’m a real stats person. Think it’s a control thing, I just need all the numbers so I can crunch them in the hope my brain will spit out something positive, or at least something I can be ok with. The odds are good - 86% chance I’ll still be here in 10 years. But there’s also a 25% chance of reoccurance in that time. And I’ve read that with secondary BC, average life expectancy is a paltry 3 years. I know I’m in a goodish place compared to many, but 25% chance it will come back and then I only have 3 years is crippling me. I have a young grown up son who is really unwell and having lost Dad already, this would be a disaster. I can’t rationalise these numbers in a way that doesn’t let the panic through. There seem to be so many brave people on this forum but I’m just not.

Hi @amber2 I am very much in your vein in that I look for empirical evidence for just about everything before I take a decision. It’s the lawyer in me :slightly_frowning_face:

Statistics are useful but it must be remembered that they are based on tens of thousands of cases and each person within those tens of thousands will have a unique story which has been homogenised. Also the statistics used are based on historical data so the impact of current treatments may not be reflected in them. You are triple positive yet the HER2 protein link to breast cancer is a relatively new discovery so there isn’t the wealth of research on it as the other endocrine tumours. Even then, great strides have already been made in targeted therapies for HER2. What I’m trying to say is, the statistics reflect a point in time and you are in a different, better, point in time.

I’d wager a great deal that every single person on the forum has catastrophised at some stage. It’s completely natural. And, yes, there are no guarantees for any one of us that we won’t get a distant recurrence at some time in the future. Once you have a cancer diagnosis, life changes and becomes a little less certain (not that it ever WAS certain in actuality). All any of us can do is look at our prognosis and process it. So you have an 86% chance of being here in 10 years time. That’s pretty positive I’d say. And you have a 75% chance of living recurrence-free. Once again, that’s pretty damned positive.

You’re coming to the end of one active treatment, which is always a trigger point. You have worries for your son, have comorbidities and are dealing with this on your own now. It’s a lot to deal with emotionally. Would it help to link up with someone who is going through a similar situation in the BCN Someone Like Me programme? All the details are on the BCN home web page. In my experience, talking things through with someone who is, or has been, in the same place, is invaluable. Positivity is so hard to maintain when you’ve been through so much but sharing the emotional burden with others who have been through it and are out the other side will help you even more than the (very positive) statistics will in my opinion. I wish you every good thing in your journey back to a cancer-free life.

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Statistically 100% of us are born and 100% of us die. The life expectancy tables for women now state that most of us will live to 86 or beyond. At least that’s my reading of this.

Other countries seem to have better breast cancer statistics than us so this may indicate delays in diagnosis and treatment. But we are where we are.

We live in relative luxury, we aren’t involved in any wars but life is never certain. I have a barky dog though so I know she will bark at anyone who gets close to the front door every day. I dread this but I try and keep things in proportion.

We don’t have to pay for NHS treatment and I have survived so far. The end of treatment is always very frightening as you are awaiting yet another treatment and you have other conditions.

Radiotherapy can be pretty gruelling so I am glad I have missed it this time, but I have had two breast cancer diagnoses over a twenty year period. I am counting my blessings now. And if it returns I will not be surprised but I will accept the things I cannot change.

Seagulls

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